Bayesian Skyline Plots disagree with range size changes based on Species Distribution Models for Holarctic birds

During the Quaternary, large climate oscillations impacted distribution and demography of species globally. Two approaches have played a major role in reconstructing changes through time: Bayesian Skyline Plots (BSPs), which reconstruct population fluctuations based on genetic data, Species Distribution Models (SDMs), allow us to back-cast range occupied by its climatic preferences. In this paper, we contrast these two applying them data set 102 Holarctic bird species, for both mitochondrial DNA sequences maps are available, their dynamics since Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Most experienced an increase effective size (Ne, as estimated BSPs) well geographical (as reconstructed SDMs) LGM; however, found no correlation between magnitude Ne size. The only clear signal could detect was later greater wetland birds compared that live other habitats, probable consequence delayed more extensive extent habitat type after LGM. lack SDM BSP reconstructions not be reconciled even when shifts were considered. We suggest pattern might linked densities, can independent changes, caution interpreting either SDMs or BSPs independently is problematic potentially misleading.